Stock Market Wealth

BEAR MARKET TRAP: Luring/ Seductive – CASH OUT!!

by | Stock Market Wealth

I’m Not…

Yesterday, I touched ground in Tel Aviv; it feels great to return to central command and get back to routine and discipline. The way my life is structured, I love my day-to-day and feel much more in control of my time and results when I’m in my natural habitat, so to speak.

I live in a high-rise tower in the city that has 103 apartments in it. I’ve made friends with many and we often chat and text about business, finance and investments.

About a month ago, in the gym on the basement floor, I was training with a retired hi-tech entrepreneur who sold his cloud business for roughly $100M. He asked me what my highest-conviction holdings were.

I texted him the same ones I’ve been pounding the table over for more than a year in the newsletter:

MSCI Inc. (MSCI), S&P Global Intelligence (SPGI), MarketAxess (MKTX), Nasdaq Inc. (NDAQ)

Real Estate:
CBRE Group Inc. (CBRE), Blackstone (BX)

Dividend Beasts:
Cintas (CTAS), Roper Technologies (ROP), Rollins (ROL)

ServiceNow (NOW), The Trade Desk (TTD)

Resmed (RMD), Abbott Labs (ABT)

He, in turn, started to give me his bullish thesis about a company he’d looked into and claimed he knew inside and out.

I asked him if he’d be willing to share the size of his position and he told me that he put a full $1,000,000 in it. Today, just about one month after I had called the bottom, he texted me that he cashed out with a 50% return.

Again, I asked why he took profits, and his answer was that he did what he came to do and that there are too many problems in the world to ignore…

Then, I did more research about sentiment and saw this:


What I really wanted to do was confirm these hunches I had that this was just like March 2009 – the beginning of a new bull market – yet EVERYONE thinks that this is the time to take profits from the July rally and wait for the next leg down…

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    I texted another friend and asked if he had been taking profits as of late, and he responded that it had been his No.1 strategy for three days straight.

    Not even 20 minutes go by, and as I was unpacking my suitcase, I get a text message of this article:

    Courtesy: Yahoo Finance

    I am positively convinced that most people are scared to lose the gains they’ve made in the past 60-90 days, since most stocks bottomed. I am further persuaded that because so many are fearful that the next shoe to drop will be the housing market, it’s hard for anyone to be bullish, but I am and I have been for TWO MONTHS already, ever since we got that dismal CPI report of over 9.0%. To me, this was a clear sign that everything the FED and the government can do to ease inflationary pressures will be done.

    This, in my view, is not a bull trap, but a BEAR TRAP. The bears have gotten cocky and sure of themselves… this means that we are off to the races.

    Lastly, I looked at what’s called the Commitment of Traders for gold. It is a fantastic tool for getting an understanding on sentiment from Smart Money… right now, the COT is at a two-year low.

    Back-testing previous times like these has shown that they’re rare and that we can and SHOULD expect gold to jump by $250/ounce by this time next year!

    Going back to the $2,000/ounce zip code is something that my portfolio is SO READY FOR, and history is saying that’s in the cards.

    Best Regards,

    Lior Gantz

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