Think This Through With an Open Mind
Markets bottomed out in October 2022.
On the QQQ ETF, which tracks the Nasdaq 100 index, we’ve tested the 260-point support three times. The first time was in the September 2020 correction, then in October 2022, followed by January 2023. Since then, QQQ is up by about 23%.
On February 14th, 2020, when the markets realized that the world was dealing with panic and a pandemic, QQQ was trading at 234 points.
In other words, if we eliminate the COVID-19 swings from February 2020 to now, the Nasdaq 100 returned 35% over 3 years, with 23% of it coming in the past four months.
Timing markets is impossible in the long run, but buying after big drops is EASY.
I want to show you an incredible stat that should prove to you for the rest of your life that no matter what ANYONE says, buying after dips is the only proven way to get richer in the market.
This chart should make the average investor completely change the way they think.
It should end any obsession with attempting to figure out anything other than how to purchase more shares in the world’s best companies, especially when they are attractive.
There are 7,300 days in 20 years. If you missed the best random 40 days, which is 0.5% of the trading sessions, your returns would be NEGATIVE.
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Right now, the market consensus is as negative and bearish as I’ve seen it in my career.
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The FED raised rates more than anyone could imagine, Russia invaded Ukraine, China kept their country closed with draconian policies for a year longer than any other nation, inflation reached 10% in the United States on the official CPI, which means it was probably closer to 20% in reality, commercial real estate has been left for dead and homeownership has been declared dead, and yet unemployment is extremely low and commentators have been shouting recession for over a year.
How can all of this be happening at the same time the U.S. sovereign credit risk rises to an all-time high and the VIX is so low?
Courtesy: Zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
The reason for this confusion starts with the president.
In the summer of 2022, GDP figures came out with the second consecutive contraction. If this would have happened on anyone else’s watch, particularly a president the media wasn’t favorable with, the headlines would have been ceaseless.
This administration was able to discredit the figures by showing the robust unemployment numbers, but if we don’t try to rationalize or massage the facts, the recession has already occurred, and we are now in recovery.
Doesn’t that make more sense?
Instead of constantly saying it is coming, why not come to terms with the short one we had and think clearly about the future?
There are incredible challenges ahead, but I ask you this: WHEN has everything looked amazing except in a bubble?
We are climbing a wall of worry.
Don’t get it twisted; the recession has already happened. While we may see another one, I would caution anyone about living life as if it’s imminent because they’ll miss the recovery.
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