Stock Market Wealth

China’s on the Mat; Economy is Knocked Down

by | Stock Market Wealth

Xi Jinping is Thinking About Survival

I’ve been watching the NBA since 1991 when I was six years old, and my late father would wake me up at 2-4 AM to see American sports, the highest level of professional athletes in the world.

I will always credit my dad with introducing me to Michael Jordan at his peak because the inspiration I drew helped me play the game myself throughout my youth.

By 1998, Michael Jordan had become a global legend, a phenomenon that no other athlete has reached since.

His nickname was that of “god,” if that gives you an idea of his branding and stature.

In 1998, he quit basketball, but the fire was still burning in his heart. He made a comeback to a different team… the Washington Wizards, where he attempted to reignite the flames.

Everyone’s idol had now become human. He was tired, showed signs of fatigue, was passed by the younger players, and couldn’t make it to the playoffs.

I saw the same thing happening with my favorite MotoGP rider, Valentino Rossi, who could not compete with the up-and-comers after 2016. There was also Michael Schumacher after his return to Mercedes. The growth spurt that athletes enjoy in their prime when the mind and body are machines is not the same in their later years after they get married, have children, and begin to live more complex lives, ones in which they can’t fully devote themselves to their pursuit of glory.

Some of them are able to extend their tenure at the top by tweaking their diets and nutrition (LeBron James, Novak Djokovic, and Fernando Alonso are examples) or develop new skills that fit their new physique (Kobe Bryant and Michael Jordan), so the first step to extending one’s reign at the top is the acknowledgement that one phase has ended and another must commence.​
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    China enjoyed incredible growth and double-digit rates of economic expansion in the 2000s.

    Their economy used to have GDP prints of 10%, 11%, 12%, and even 15% in the late 2000s, but they are growing at 5% today. The pace of growth has materially slowed because what brought them here is not what will keep them here.

    They’re facing a situation of faltering growth and record youth unemployment, which dampens the national morale and can almost be defined as deflation.

    The consensus on Wall Street was that after zero-COVID policies, consumers would rush to spend and manufacturing would come roaring back, but people would rather save than spend, and business regulations have made companies look elsewhere for their production needs.

    The property boom that has fueled much of China’s meteoric rise is reversing since population growth has completely stalled and the Chinese are actually looking to sell!

    The government spending on infrastructure, which has nurtured and fostered foreign investment and steady jobs, is slowing dramatically because of high debt levels. It also doesn’t help that the government came down hard on the tech sector and stopped IPOs.

    China is no longer a low-cost goods powerhouse, and they must evolve like the super-athletes do and find new ways of growing or they’ll be trapped in the middle-class loop.

    Best Regards,

    Lior Gantz

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