You’d Better Believe It
In the past two weeks, I’ve taken inventory on the American-led global order. I can tell you things that stand out to me more than any other: President Xi’s visit to San Francisco and the talks between the Chinese delegates at Davos and American business leaders.
What I see more than anything else is that China is on the brink of a major economic collapse. It must do everything it can to restore trust and faith in its system and entice multinationals and foreign investors to get back into the fold.
Courtesy: Zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
The Chinese stock market is where money goes to die, and that’s for good reason: the country sucks when it comes to its capitalistic environment when compared to the United States where everyone feels safe that no one will touch their money, the most sacred thing in America.
For the past 10 years, the Chinese market has mostly been comprised of dead money. I think that China realizes that if it keeps pushing away investors because President Xi is mentally insane, it will ultimately lose the unwritten contract it virtually signed with its citizens whereby the government will help them regain honor, national pride, and offer a better lifestyle in exchange for privacy and control over foreign and domestic policy.
It’s hard to believe that over a billion people choose this way of life, but since October 7th, I’ve seen that roughly 10-20% of the global population is borderline deranged and has no sense of history or understanding of reality.
I generally estimate that between 1-3 billion human beings just don’t know much of anything.
It’s scary, but it’s so true.
China understands that if it keeps terrifying investors, it sends them back into the hands of their greatest enemy, the United States, and that’s precisely what Beijing wants to avoid.
Many of China’s greatest leaders have openly advocated that if they must let others trample over them instead of fighting back, that would be favorable.
China is weak, so it doesn’t want to portray itself as anything else. It openly asks foreigners to go back because the dependency of the West on it is essentially the main reason not to go to war with them.
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The last time China roared back when the West decided it was better to do business with it than strike it was in 2000.
China was invited to the World Trade Organization, and a decade-long bull market in commodities (like gold) began.
On March 20th, 2020, the NUGT ETF traded at the same level it does today. It’s also the same day Bill Ackman came on national TV and warned that people wouldn’t leave their homes for the next three years of quarantine and that hundreds of thousands of businesses would tumble.
How can gold mining companies be worth the same today as they were on that day?
I’m putting my money where my mouth is, and I’ve allocated funds to commodities. I primarily picked gold, silver, uranium, nickel, copper, and lithium, and I’ve done so with more conviction than at any other point in the past 20 years.
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