Fear is Toxic
We’re no longer in the French Alps. After a week in Chamonix, at the foothills of the Mont Blanc, we arrived in the city of Milano. There aren’t many cities, which are so innovative and filled with fashion, design and prestige, as much as this iconic Northern Italy metropolis.
Next to the Duomo Cathedral, there’s a fashion Galleria, which is seen in scores of pictures worldwide.
We searched for an Italian restaurant within the shopping complex and were turned down by four different ones, all filled to capacity.
At the center of the Galleria is the Louis Vuitton store and the line that spread across 30 meters was sort of surreal. We hear about Michael Burry, the investor, who saw through the sub-prime bubble and bet his life savings into that rotten practice taking housing down and how he thinks what’s coming will be worse than that.
We hear Jim Rogers, the investor that was able to co-manage a fund with George Soros in the 1970s and make 4,200% returns saying the worst depression of his life is upon us.
We have famed billionaires calling for the end of the world, yet people are spending and spending and there’s not clueless teens, but adult family men, who are probably in better financial shape than these Wall Street titans seem to think.
We took a day tour yesterday to Lake Como, the third largest in Italy and the inspiration behind many of the world’s most beautiful architecture, including the Bellagio Hotel in Las Vegas.
Many movies were and are shot in the lakeside villas, which used to be palaces of the Aristocracy and while we were there, Lady Gaga, Michael Jordan and others were also getting some sun and eating fine Italian food.
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It was busy here, as much as it is every time I come to the lake. We rented a cabana with sunbeds and pool access, just on the lake’s shore and took a ferry around the lake… it was filled with tourists from all over the world…
The more I look at the adaptability of businesses and of individuals to 2022’s impossible economic environment, the more I think that the global economy is getting back its footing.
Think about the companies that have already reported earnings; 56% of the companies on the index have announced results, representing 70% of the total market cap and the EPS, on aggregate, was 3% higher than consensus and the growth has been 6%, which means that even the war in Russia and the FED aggressiveness have not been deterring factors in 2022.
The markets have already discounted forecasts by much and we have entered a recession, so that knowledge is also out there, getting priced-in.
Recession, war in Europe, housing slowdown, Zero-Covid policy in China, supply chain disruptions, record high inflation… what else can happen that isn’t already discounted?
I am 100% convinced that when I called the bottom on late June, it was not a bull trap, but the truth and July has proven that, but I think people don’t realize just how high stocks can go from here!
Again, here are my BIGGEST positions:
MSCI Inc. (MSCI), S&P Global Intelligence (SPGI), MarketAxess (MKTX), Nasdaq Inc. (NDAQ)
CBRE Group Inc. (CBRE), Blackstone (BX)
Cintas (CTAS), Roper Technologies (ROP), Rollins (ROL)
ServiceNow (NOW), The Trade Desk (TTD)
Resmed (RMD), Abbott Labs (ABT)
Governments Have Amassed ungodly Debt Piles and Have Promised Retirees Unreasonable Amounts of Entitlements, Not In Line with Income Tax Collections. The House of Cards Is Set To Be Worse than 2008! Rising Interest Rates Can Topple The Fiat Monetary Structure, Leaving Investors with Less Than Half of Their Equity Intact!
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