The Next 90 Days Determined
in the Next 3 Days
When I was in Colorado a few years back, we did a rafting trip in level-3 and level-4 rapids.
Very different from a tennis match, where the opponents need to stay focused for the duration of the battle and where every swing counts, rafting is altogether different.
While the stream is soothing and calm, you row the kayak easily and don’t have to do much for things to advance along.
The waters are relaxing, the views are amazing and you’re in awe of nature and the silence of the outdoors, but as you begin to hear the roar of the rapids, you know you’ve reached a place with strong currents.
It takes immense effort and concentration to get it right and stay on the kayak and row successfully, especially as the waters become increasingly powerful.
Like a bear market, if you’re in the waters, you can’t leave the boat or head to the banks and wait it out on the side, if you want to get to the calm stream and be stronger for the next one.
In rafting, in the span of 30 seconds, everything could either go very well and safe, or disaster could strike… rowers end up in the water, banging their heads and bodies on the rocks, or worse, they sink in the turbulent whirlpools.
This week, starting NOW, the market is entering level-5 rapids, the highest and strongest kind.
UPS will be reporting today and likely already has, by the time you’re reading this. UPS tells you a lot about consumer confidence and if we’re slowing into a recession. One hour later, Pepsi will reveal to us the inflationary pressures in consumer goods.
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These two are the warm-up for the main event…
Right at the market closing bell, two of the world’s most important corporations, Google and Microsoft, say their piece. Google is already down 16% in APRIL! I can’t believe I just wrote these words… Microsoft is down 13% in APRIL!
Then, on Wednesday, META platforms (formerly Facebook) will be reporting. META is important, because advertising on Facebook and Instagram tells us much about small and mid-sized businesses in America and around the globe—the lifeblood of modern economies.
META is already down 45% in 2022 and trades at a P/E of 13, which is unbelievable, but true. Right after them, PayPal will also announce earnings and tell us much about the gig economy and emerging markets.
On Thursday, before the market opens, MasterCard, a company that has its octopus tentacles in so many of the world’s transactions, can tell us a lot about the real economy, Main Street, what people are spending on, and whether inflation is bearing down on the middle class.
As if all of this wasn’t a whirlwind in itself, the two heavyweights close us off on Thursday, with Amazon at the bell and Apple Inc. (which is approaching a $3tn market cap) reporting 30 minutes afterwards.
We will pay attention to earnings and to commentary on the consumer, supply chains, the war in Russia, and the world opening back up, but the key thing we want to be glued to the screen over is the FUTURE GUIDANCE they share with us.
If management is confident, Wall Street will be as well, but if these companies are uncertain, we believe the rug pull will be disastrous and might solidify recessionary worries.
Life and death situation in the making!
Governments Have Amassed ungodly Debt Piles and Have Promised Retirees Unreasonable Amounts of Entitlements, Not In Line with Income Tax Collections. The House of Cards Is Set To Be Worse than 2008! Rising Interest Rates Can Topple The Fiat Monetary Structure, Leaving Investors with Less Than Half of Their Equity Intact!
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