Stock Market Wealth

MARKET TORTURE: Guantanamo Winter – RUN NOW?!

by | Stock Market Wealth

The Pain Isn’t Over

The markets are speaking loud and clear and what they’re telling the FED is that Omicron is the type of Black Swan event that downgrades the central bank’s forecast of 4% GDP.

There are even talks about a recession in 2022, just days after the central bank signaled that the economy is booming, that the jobs market is steady, healthy and tight, and that America is on pace for expansion – clearly, the Omicron variant is infecting not just the lungs, but the minds of buyers and sellers.

Before I dive deeper into this, whenever we address Covid-19 in our publications, we are BOMBARDED with comments from both sides of the political spectrum: those who think this is all a nothing burger and that governments and drug companies are in cahoots to take our freedoms and implant us with micro-chips, and those on the other side, who think that not wearing four masks one on top of the other shows total neglect of responsibility and disregard for human life. With that in mind, understand that what we do is look at the charts about infection rates and the stats coming from the hospitals, and then reflect on how markets are reacting to it. We do not poison our research with bias.

If I maintained the opinion that there was no virus whatsoever in March 2020 and that all videos from China were deepfakes, then I would have completely missed the -35% crash and wouldn’t have anticipated the central bank printing press sending gold to a new all-time high!

My point is that the world is comprised of 8bn souls, each with their own opinion, but this collective whole creates a consensus, which is defined as the aggregated thought of the community.

Your success over time with investing relies heavily on your ability to sense when that collective whole has reached either panic mode or euphoria, and to simply capitalize on each by the strategic deployment of cash.

We believe that markets currently think the following (this is the consensus):

  • Omicron is a fast-spreading, mildly-lethal variant, which will dominate news outlets during the holiday season and into January and February, and will reignite Covid-19 restrictions (don’t confuse this statement with my personal opinion on the matter).
  • Therefore, GDP forecasts are to be revised down, implying that the FED might delay rate hikes, which were based upon a strong economic outlook.
  • The market has yet to determine whether these Covid-19 restrictions will re-introduce high inflation fears, because many companies have stockpiled merchandise, in advance.

If you remember, it was in December 2018 when the markets had a monstrous decline, based upon the consensus that the FED was over-tightening.

Trump and Steve Mnuchin deployed the Plunge Protection Team, along with personally calling the CEOs of the largest banks to confirm adequate liquidity, and it worked to reassure the market.

When the FED acknowledged their mistake and U-turned, markets began rallying again in 2019, which is what we call conceding to market forces.

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    The opportunity here is in realizing if the consensus is wrong and what type of companies are getting beaten-down and overly punished in this environment.

    Next, it will speculate on what will alleviate the concerns and be that bullish catalyst the markets need.


    The flow of funds into equities in 2021 has been truly unprecedented, but even with that, there’s $17.6tn in cash on the sidelines and bond yields are plummeting, since bond investors are running towards the safety of sovereign debt, which keeps TINA (There is no Alternative) in play.

    In other words, this torture and endless selling by algorithm is only justified if 2022 is recessionary, but we don’t believe it will be.

    In fact, after this winter media-scare, our opinion is that Covid-19 will fade out, as people around the globe make a conscious choice to live with it.

    The conclusion here is that fear levels are at an extreme and this is, without a doubt, a buying opportunity, whether you think the pandemic is lethal or a farce, since both cases have been priced in.

    My top companies to consider right now include Corsair Gaming (CRSR) {under $22}, Teladoc (TDOC) {under $85} and Rollins (ROL) {under $32.50}.

    Best Regards,

    Lior Gantz

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      We are not brokers, investment or financial advisers, and you should not rely on the information herein as investment advice. We are a marketing company. If you are seeking personal investment advice, please contact a qualified and registered broker, investment adviser or financial adviser. You should not make any investment decisions based on our communications. Our stock profiles are intended to highlight certain companies for YOUR further investigation; they are NOT recommendations. The securities issued by the companies we profile should be considered high risk and, if you do invest, you may lose your entire investment. Please do your own research before investing, including reading the companies’ SEC filings, press releases, and risk disclosures. Information contained in this profile was provided by the company, extracted from SEC filings, company websites, and other publicly available sources. We believe the sources and information are accurate and reliable but we cannot guarantee it.

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