The Numbers Don’t Make Sense
Yesterday was our final day on the island of Sardinia. This Italian-owned gem is world-renowned. Some of the world’s most beautiful beaches stretch forever along its northern shore. The region is called Costa Smeralda (the Emerald Coast), and to the north of it is the archipelago of La Maddalena, which has turquoise waters that are too gorgeous to describe with words.
On July 31st, we explored the archipelago on a clear sunny day. The white sand at the surface combined with the sunny skies and lack of clouds created a color that is only seen in a few places.
The adults and children had a magical day, and both families on board felt blessed.
The rumors were true… these beaches are definitely breathtaking. It only made sense that on August 4th, when I booked scuba diving in the archipelago, it would be more of the same… a true paradise.
When we left the villa at 7:50 AM, I could see the skies were cloudy… not what we had experienced during the week.
We got to our boat and headed towards the dive site, but the sun wasn’t coming out.
As we checked our gear, the mouthpiece of the regulator that provides air from the tank tasted weird. I raised my concern, but the instructor indicated it was a detergent used by them regularly and was nothing to worry about.
My wife who has skydived, bungee jumped, dived with sharks with no cage, took the polar plunge, and said YES to virtually anything I proposed we do, came up after five minutes… she couldn’t breathe with the crazy aftertaste of the tank. I continued by myself with the guide but wasn’t interested in the second dive of the day.
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It began raining, and the winds were insane. The same little bay of turquoise waters that was heaven on Earth three days ago was now a hell that I couldn’t leave until the other group finished its dive and we all collectively got back to land.
What does this have to do with gold and Vladimir Putin, you ask?
When NATO and the United States failed at understanding why and how Ukraine is Russia’s line in the sand and diplomacy failed, leading Putin to embark upon a military invasion, Biden’s administration blamed high oil prices on Putin and the FED cited the invasion as a contributor to borderline hyperinflationary CPI data.
By late 2022, with CPI reliably coming down, the coast looked clear, and central banks claimed they were on the right path. Markets priced in turquoise waters, disinflation, and normalcy, and the Nasdaq bottomed and began its epic rally higher.
On August 4th, with the jobs numbers out and looking at real-world data from Italy, Israel, France, the U.S., and Switzerland, which I’ve personally visited in the past few weeks, inflation is coming back.
Vladimir Putin isn’t the reason gold prices are going up and down; it’s the reemergence of inflation that creates market conditions that are less advantageous for gold since they mean high bond yields are here to stay for longer than anticipated.
Putin isn’t the cause of this; there’s a massive deglobalization process that is bringing supply chains back to the U.S., and there are simply not enough workers. That situation may linger on for longer than we anticipate.
Free money and easy money policies… all that crap is coming back to bite us, and this might be what causes the recession…
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