Cut, Cut, Cut
For the past month, I’ve been training on a Formula 1 driving simulator.
I started doing it for the hell of it, but I soon learned that through driving, you can learn everything there is to know about yourself, from the perspective of cognitive abilities, open-mindedness and motivation to improve.
You sweat and bleed for a 1% or 2% improvement, but that marginal progress is enough to turn a midfield driver into a world champion.
The entire art of driving is about painting an imaginary line, a “story” of what the lap will look like, so that you “live” in the future.
When driving 250 kilometers per hour, the car is advancing by 70 meters per second, meaning that if you need to turn in 150 meters, you must start now.
If you wait for the turn, you’ll miss it.
My instructor is an ex-carting champion and the simulator room is filled with golden trophies; I’m learning a lot from him and I’m learning a lot about myself.
When we practice a slalom, if your focus is on the next column, you’re guaranteed to miss, run over or just lose precious time on the next one.
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At all times, you’re looking two columns ahead, so you can plan how to bring the car to it in the optimal conditions, since the actions you perform now impact the next 70 meters.
In the markets, the FED says it is data-dependent, but I’d rather Powell stop hitting columns and treat the markets like a Formula 1 driver and ANTICIPATE.
I know it’s a big ask, so instead of him doing it, we better not start thinking that the FED will ever be able to adjust to conditions which the data doesn’t yet confirm, because it’s not in its DNA.
My suggestion is that you think of the FED as your opponent on the tarmac and understand that the FED is late, at all times. When the lights go out, it steps on the gas late, breaks late into the corner, accelerates slowly and loses focus early in the lap.
When you do that, you can perform better and win the race, since your opponent only sees the wall, when he hits the wall.
When they accelerate rate hikes and keep telling themselves that they still don’t see a wall, you can already be on the breaks and enter the corner and exit it with full momentum.
After SVB, the market is sniffing out the FED and believes that a hard landing is in motion, and if the FED doesn’t alter this plane’s course, it might turn into a recession.
Therefore, the market now sees rate cuts this year as an attempt to stop the recession from materializing.
Pop Quiz: What’s the best-performing asset class in a rate-cut environment to block a recession? The tried-and-true precious metal, GOLD, and its smaller brother, SILVER.
If you ask me, recessions are served cold, not when everyone is short stocks and sits on cash, so I personally think we aren’t heading for a recession… that’s too easy and simplistic.
I think we are entering sluggish growth and high inflation.
My elders call it stagflation; who am I to argue? BTW, last time we got this condition, gold doubled (would love to see it at $3,800/ounce).
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