Now The Oracle of Omaha Says to Sell
The Buffett Indicator (total U.S. stock market capitalization divided by GDP) is Warren Buffett's favored gauge of market valuation, often called "probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment."
The indicator stands at approximately 224%, marking a record high and signaling the stock market is significantly overvalued. This exceeds the dot-com peak (~200%) and far surpasses the historical average (~80-100%), placing it 2+ standard deviations above trend.
At this extreme level, historical precedents suggest muted future returns—potentially negative annualized over the next 8-10 years (including dividends)—as markets revert toward economic fundamentals.
Buffett himself has cautioned against over-reliance on any single metric.
Now let me tell you what I think:
Courtesy: X.com/barchart
The Buffett Indicator is basically never cheap. If one followed it, one would never own stocks.
It's been "overvalued" for years now…
Today, many companies choose to remain private for many years. If SpaceX and others were public, this ratio would be cheap.
In 2026, The United States of America plans to have a housing boom, a manufacturing boom, tax cuts, very minimal inflation and insane foreign investments, made during 2025.
How is it even possible to be bearish?
Most importantly, in June, a new FED Chairman will shock the world with a new and innovative approach to central banking and I believe interest rates will drop dramatically, helping the American people FIRST.
In short, the Buffett Indicator is no longer relevant for predicting massive market crashes (30% or more).
I have studied President Trump more than anyone else and I can tell you 2026 will be VOLATILE, not because of his winning policies, but because the market still doesn't believe him or in him.
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When he said that he's going to announce reciprocal tariffs, he gave markets two months head notice, yet on April 2nd, Liberation Day, Wall Street acted as if this was out of the blue.
On August 1s, Trump put tariffs on minerals and Japan's bonds soared like he didn't say a million times that it's coming.
Dictator of Venezuela was offered so many chances to leave this hemisphere and didn't understand that there is only one boss this side of the globe --- he found out.
The markets don't know what a real president is, because they've seen bought-out clowns and jokes for three decades straight: Clinton, Bush, Obama and Biden.
32 years of complete and utter governmental failure, apart from Trump's 1stterm.
If one chooses to be bearish, that's on him.
We are in the age of Capable Nations and those countries that are special, that stand for great values, for the higher principles, for the beauty of humanity and are able to defend those cultural excellencies, will thrive.
Those that are too lazy, too slow or otherwise, will be eaten up by neighbors.
The United States of America tried foolishly to drag mediocre countries over the finish line and to convince barbarians to be civil.
Now, they're not persuading anyone to do anything; they are saying what needs to happen for a better world to manifest and don't stand in the way or else.
Best Regards,
Lior Gantz
President, WealthResearchGroup.com
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