Six Reasons for Russia’s Disastrous Failure
Today and on Thursday, we’re going to recap and process the most important events of 2022, and none of which is more critical than the special military operation of Russia, when it believed that it had the legitimacy to infiltrate Ukraine, take down its government and annex the entire country.
Their justifications proved to be false and Putin is at risk of losing not only this conflict, but Russia’s influence in Central Asia, an area that was loyal to Russia, due to its ties with the Soviet Union.
The Russian Federation is on the brink of becoming irrelevant and their only ace in the hole, the sole card up their sleeve, is a proposed springtime attack, but this is proving to be harder than they thought.
The West, led by the U.S. and NATO member nations, understands what’s at stake.
If they show any signs of disunity, China and their allies will make their move. The Russia/Ukraine war is now much more than a Russian attempt to secure its borders from the sneaky devils behind NATO’s continued expansion or Putin’s attempt to secure access to the Black Sea; the war is now a microcosm of the new world order and America’s crucial effort to retain dominance. This comes after ROYALLY SCREWING its exit from Afghanistan, in a manner that allowed the world’s most evil regime, the Taliban, to take back control over the country.
Here are the six reasons for Russia’s failure:
- Faulty assumptions about the strength of Ukraine’s military: thinking that it is still going to bend over, like in 2014. Secondly, inaccurate social studies pointed towards a Ukrainian population that would welcome Russia as a liberator and support it; this couldn’t have been further from the truth in Kiev, where public opinion shapes policy.
- Political spectacle instead of military conquest: The rule of conquering is to come in with a force three times bigger than that of the enemy. Ukraine’s military is comprised of 220,000 soldiers, which means Russia should have sent 660,000; instead, they only had 190,000, and also failed to implement their own playbook of artillery first, tanks later.
Their long convoys of tanks were supposed to be a victory parade and ended up looking so vulnerable that they got stuck without sufficient weaponry, basic training in handling equipment and stopping dead in their tracks, without fuel.
- Lackluster logistics: Man, did they drop the ball here or what? The Russians simply had no idea how to engineer their supply chains and many tanks had to be deserted in the middle of the road.
- Reliance on ancient Soviet warfare tactics: Some of the Russian generals were using the same old tricks that the Caesars deployed centuries ago.
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What a joke for a military that made headlines as the 2nd strongest in the world.
I’m sure Putin, being the loyal patriot that he is, didn’t set out to foolishly send more than 100,000 Russians to their death, but he did purposefully use terrorism on civilian targets to pressure Ukrainians and EU leaders to succumb to his desires.
- Scare tactics gone wrong: It is a well-known strategy that creating a refugee crisis in Europe is a way to get politicians to the negotiating table.
By applying maximum pressure on the citizenry, Putin hoped Ukrainians would flee in droves, just like in Syria or Chechnya, but the ceaseless bombing of non-military assets only united the Ukrainians and made them want to strike back with vengeance.
- Bad intelligence: In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea and the Ukrainians didn’t put up much of a fight.
The international community didn’t come to the aid of Ukraine, therefore, Russian consultants and high-ranking generals thought that they’d face an army similar to the one that surrendered to them in 2014.
They were wrong; in the past eight years, the U.S. sent weapons, training and anti-aircraft missiles and the Russians weren’t prepared to meet their new adversary.
Putin is losing grip within Russia and he’s losing his prestige in Central Asia, which grows closer to Europe and China. The Turkish sense this to be their hour to expand and NATO will, most likely, welcome two new members in February, right on Russia’s border.
In the next six months, we will know if Putin is able to somehow accept defeat and keep his seat OR do what many rulers before him have done when facing extreme conditions: get even more desperate and aggressive.
2023 is the year that I believe bullshit stops and reality sinks in, both in Russia and everywhere else; 2023 is the year of showdowns.
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