No Way to Really Get it Done Properly
January 8th 2003 was the day I joined the IDF to serve my 3-year mandatory stint. In Israel, all males and females are drafted after high school and deployed in various roles, from non-combat near your residence (almost like a job) to being in some remote base far from home and going back every other weekend.
But, before the combat soldiers ever get to carry the M-16 or are assigned for various missions and tasks, they go through training.
I remember that first day I was assigned my M-16 and my group walked down towards the shooting range for target-practice.
Some 25 meters away, cardboard targets, drawn and printed as a silhouette of another human being, were hung on a wooden pole. The officer told us to lie down on the concrete, point our rifles at it, load one bullet in the chamber, take aim and fire.
He said that the rifles weren’t calibrated for our own eyes, so after we shot a few, we’d need to spin the sight up or down, depending on where the cluster of holes was made on the target.
If you overdo it, you’ll miss to the left or to the right, or you’ll be too high or too low.
Some of the guys around me spun more than a few clicks… they really went overboard and had to learn to be more delicate with the sight.
Others took their time, adjusting one tick after each shot and saw the results; even when it made no sense to just do one little tweak, because they were way off, they chose to be moderate in their approach.
There were a few who missed and decided not to tamper with the sight at all, but rather position the rifle differently on the shoulder, raise their arm more, or even move the finger to the front or the back of the scope – but they did not play around with the sight.
Notice that the officer in charge, a soldier with a couple years of experience in managing shooting ranges, didn’t try to force upon us any one method; he allowed wiggle room, a space for interpretation, and also gave us leeway when we were wrong and needed to do more shooting and more trial and error, in order to reach our goal.
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Now, when you’re just talking about your own little self, just one rifle, you don’t really think about the importance of it being 100% zeroed-in and ready to fire, but if every soldier in the IDF was to get sloppy and cut a few corners and not really get it to the point of perfection, then Israel’s entire army would be walking around with M-16s that aren’t properly calibrated.
Each person has a one-of-a-kind eye, so each solider must do this manual task for himself. There’s no software or centralized system to complete this all-important chore and, furthermore, it relies on the individual who just received his weapon, to accurately judge his performance and state that he feels comfortable with his hits.
Interest rates are also like calibrating the rifle; it’s not an exact science and is prone to mistakes and errors in judgement!
The central banks will never get the job done just right, because unlike one’s eye, which remains relatively the same, the economy changes every day.
This is the reason markets are on edge, jittery and cautious of a recession; the FED is performing brain surgery on the global economy and using outdated medical devices to undertake the job.
We believe that most of the real problems are behind us, but we’re not out of the woods yet, as this earnings season is pointing out.
Gold is now ready to start moving higher, as the dollar is peaking… one more “big low” and we’ll be underway.
Governments Have Amassed ungodly Debt Piles and Have Promised Retirees Unreasonable Amounts of Entitlements, Not In Line with Income Tax Collections. The House of Cards Is Set To Be Worse than 2008! Rising Interest Rates Can Topple The Fiat Monetary Structure, Leaving Investors with Less Than Half of Their Equity Intact!
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