This Bullish Setup Looks Great

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Here’s an analysis of the current Commitment of Traders (COT) report for silver, as of March 18, 2025, compared to historical reports from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

I’ll compare it to key historical data points over the past decade to gauge trends, sentiment, and positioning shifts.

Current COT Report: Silver (March 18, 2025)

– Open Interest: 170,566 contracts
– Non-Commercial (Speculators):  Long: 87,601 (51.4%), Short: 25,303 (14.8%), Net Long: 62,298.
– Commercial (Hedgers): Long: 31,479 (18.5%), Short: 113,134 (66.3%), Net Short: -81,655.
– Non-Reportable (Small Traders): Long: 32,438 (19.0%), Short: 13,081 (7.7%), Net Long: 19,357.

Historical Comparisons

March 15, 2016 (Early Rally)

– Open Interest: 183,421
– Non-Commercial: Long 93,735 (51.1%), Short 15,595 (8.5%), Net Long 78,140
– Commercial: Long 38,296 (20.9%), Short 137,548 (75.0%), Net Short -99,252
– Non-Reportable: Long 51,390 (28.0%), Short 30,278 (16.5%), Net Long 21,112
– Price: ~$15.50/oz, climbing to $20 by July 2016

Comparison: Today’s spec long (51.4%) mirrors 2016’s peak bullishness (51.1%), but their net position (62,298) is lower than 78,140. Commercials are less short now (-81,655 vs. -99,252), hinting at reduced hedging pressure. 

March 17, 2020 (COVID Crash Bottom)

– Open Interest: 170,349
– Non-Commercial: Long 55,087 (32.3%), Short 23,698 (13.9%), Net Long 31,389
– Commercial: Long 62,098 (36.5%), Short 126,037 (74.0%), Net Short -63,939
– Non-Reportable: Long 53,164 (31.2%), Short 20,614 (12.1%), Net Long 32,550
– Price: ~$12.50/oz, bottoming before a 2021 spike to $28.

Comparison: Open interest aligns (170k), but speculators are far more bullish now (51.4% vs. 32.3%) and commercials more SHORT (-81,655 vs. -63,939). Price has tripled since, reflecting recovery and inflation bets.

March 15, 2022 (Post-COVID Peak)

– Open Interest: 141,778
– Non-Commercial: Long 62,856 (44.3%), Short 22,087 (15.6%), Net Long 40,769
– Commercial: Long 30,135 (21.3%), Short 94,940 (67.0%), Net Short -64,805
– Non-Reportable: Long 48,787 (34.4%), Short 24,751 (17.5%), Net Long 24,036
– Price: ~$25.50/oz, off 2021’s $28 high

Comparison: Spec longs are higher now (51.4% vs. 44.3%), with a bigger net (62,298 vs. 40,769). Commercials match the short bias (66–67%), but their net short is steeper today (-81,655 vs. -64,805). Open interest is up 20%, and price is 30% higher, showing escalation.

Key Trends & Sentiment

• Speculators: The current 62,298 net long is robust—below 2016’s 78,140 peak, but double 2014/2020 lows.

At 51.4% long, they’re as bullish as during 2016’s rally, suggesting confidence in $40/ounce upside, matching Citibank’s price target for 2025.

Historically, such levels precede price jumps (2016: $15 to $20; 2020: $12 to $28).

• Commercials: Net short -81,655 is hefty but not a record (2016: -99,252). They’ve never been net long since 1986, and this deep shorting often signals tops—yet prices rose post-2016 despite similar positions. Today’s $33.29 vs. $15.50, implies they’re hedging higher costs, not capping price.
• Small Traders: Net long 19,357 is middling—below 2020/2022 highs (32k–24k).

Silver’s COT now echoes 2016’s bullish setup – speculators piling in, commercials digging in short, but with higher open interest and price ($33 vs. $15).

Historically, spec net longs above 60,000 indicate rallies (2016, 2020), though commercial shorts temper runaway gains.

Compared to past cycles, this isn’t a top yet.

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Best Regards,

Lior Gantz
President, WealthResearchGroup.com