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SLAM THE BID: This Ship is SINKING – You’ve BEEN WARNED!
I AM not getting close to the NASDAQ, S&P 500 or the Dow Jones right now. There’s going to be a violent and swift shake-up in a matter of days to clear the air, before we rally again.
Behold, the euphoria is here and nothing can dim the lights or choke the fire, for now; the world wants to believe that we’ve turned a page and that a sustainable recovery is here.
If you’re reading this and having a laugh, you’re not the only one (I’m bewildered by the sudden optimism myself), but everyone around us is JOLLY AS CAN BE!
Greed, greed and more greed – that’s the atmosphere:
Hedge funds are as LONG as you can get. The S&P 500 has returned more than 50% since President Trump was put into office – that’s more than 2x the average return of previous Commanders-in-Chief after 36 months, but Wall Street wants MORE.
Historically, the market CHARGES ahead, if the previous year (2019) was so damn good. I expect 2020 to be an overall good year for stocks, personally, but not before the moms and pops are scared shitless and sell their stock at a 10%-15% loss, in the very near future.
Volatility, baby, will be in full force; January will feel like the first time you get on a Six Flags rollercoaster.
It’s not just the hedge funds that are trigger-ready and sense that stocks could march much higher – it’s the retail investors as well!
Weird, right? Just one year ago, on this date, President Trump had to call heads of banks and Steve Mnuchin was reassuring the country that this is not another 2008, the Federal Reserve was spitting blood, and the world was obsessed with ducking for cover.
Not since 2004 have investors been so thrilled about the economy and about buying stocks; 365 days ago, they were more horrified than in the Lehman Moment.
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I don’t think the bull market is over, but I do see this being eerily similar to 1998-2000, when markets were going through MULTIPLE 10% declines and rebounds in a given year.
2020 will be super-volatile; in fact, the Black Swan index is SCREAMING!
The potential for an event, which is outside of the realm of the collective imagination, is at A 5-YEAR HIGH!
Gold just had its best year since 2010, so it’s very likely that 2020 will be another incredible year for it. As Paul Tudor Jones – one of the premier commodities investors and a self-made billionaire – predicted a couple of months ago, the road to $1,750/ounce could be super-fast.
Courtesy: U.S. Global Investors
Oil’s up 36% this year; that’s inflationary. Commodities are only up 6%, so there’s plenty of catching-up to do!
The bottom lines are these: (1) record euphoria, (2) very confident American consumer, (3) global central banks easing in concert, (4) election year and (5) construction picking up in the U.S., where 18% of GDP is derived directly from housing.
I’ve got plenty more to show you on Tuesday, but know that the BUBBLE is really inflating right now, so profits will be “easy” – but losses even more so, if you’re not careful and attentive.
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Governments Have Amassed ungodly Debt Piles and Have Promised Retirees Unreasonable Amounts of Entitlements, Not In Line with Income Tax Collections. The House of Cards Is Set To Be Worse than 2008! Rising Interest Rates Can Topple The Fiat Monetary Structure, Leaving Investors with Less Than Half of Their Equity Intact!
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