It's not the 1970's…

Many people don't know something very interesting about Mr. Ray Dalio, one of the best and most consistent hedge fund managers of all times… his career started with a massive WRONG CALL.

In 1982, Ray Dalio suffered a public and shameful defining failure that forged his legend status.

He was young and incredibly confident that Latin American countries were about to default. Literally, Ray Dalio thought Mexico would be in bankruptcy and he made public appearances, even on TV, explaining that U.S. banks loaned Mexico and others, funds that would never be paid back.

Talking is one thing, but he went high on his own supply and even testified to Congress that this was a sure thing.

The Federal Reserve, in Dalio's opinion and in many others as well, was about to tighten credit, to save banks and depositors from lending more, but the FED slashed and flooded markets with liquidity.

Dalio was so wrong that he lost everything and I mean that: his father had to lend him $4,000 to start fresh.

Dalio later called this his "most pivotal mistake," a humbling blow that rewired his approach.

From the ashes of 1982, Dalio built an empire. Bridgewater's systematic, diversified approach delivered ~12% annual returns for decades, growing to manage $150 billion by 2025.

Dalio's Mexico lesson didn't just save his firm—it redefined modern investing, but Ray is again about to get a big one wrong. Similarly to his Mexico disastrous call, he is once more seeing the data, but not reading what the reaction is going to be, betting that the government and the FED will do what conventional wisdom and history say they will, not what mythical figures do.

Dalio sees comparisons to the 1970's and to the 1930's, but I don't.

I'll repeat my overriding thesis because it is at the core of my way of thinking: in 1901, the United States began to erode its identity, as a constitutional, sovereign republic that fought to set mankind free and to build a nation, destined to safeguard the individual, as the greatest creation of the universe.

Instead, it saw man, as a flawed being that must be told what to do and how to think, by a managerial class of enlightened elites, which was the growing ideology of Germany, since the 1870s.

This was the birth of the scientific social engineering period of reformists, which from 1901 to 1919, changed the constitution, created the FED, the income class and meddled in WW1.

Its mistakes led to the roaring 1920s, which ended in disaster and the Great Depression.

Instead of learning from the mistakes of straying from the constitution, FDR expanded government to a size that was unfathomable and the Nanny State was born.

This Nanny State was attacked on its own soil in Pearl Harbor and changed the course of history, by realizing that if it won't act to defend itself, the forces of Imperial Japan, Soviet Russia and Nazi Germany would eventually overpower it and proceeded to save the world.

It saved the world, but not itself…

A clear victor of WW2, it didn't produce the kind of visionary leadership, capable of building a sustainable new order and it, unfortunately, went astray, forging the Bretton-Woods System.

The two main problems of this system, were the (1) overreliance on American military might to save everyone else's problem {unsustainable} and the (2) overreliance on America's economy to prop-up everyone else's {unsustainable}.

By the late 1960s, this system nearly resulted in worldwide chaos, so in 1971, in a cowardly move, Kissinger persuaded Nixon to "temporarily" end the convertibility of the dollar into gold.

After that, apart from the Reagan and George Bush (the father), the U.S. slummed into an era of shedding off its sovereignty and its industrial heartland, by embracing globalist ideologies that culminated in the 2016 witch-hunt, when the counter-revolution began, in the 2020 election fraud and in the 2024 attempt to install a puppet candidate with zero talent.

This is where Dalio is wrong, you see…

He compares today with the 1930s and 1970s, when attempting to predict and forecast the future, but, as I've just shown you, Trump's 2^nd term, the 47^th presidential term, is a counter-revolution to the 1901-2024 era and the United States has never experienced anything similar to it.

The best way to predict the future is by understanding Donald J. Trump and Ray Dalio is simply not capable of effectively doing that.

I am. The proof is in the words I've written here for the past two years about him.

Ray Dalio is making a 1982-Mexico-Default-sized mistake and, just like back then, his argument is extremely persuasive and extremely wrong.