This Data is Compelling
Clinton, Bush, Obama and Biden… weak, pathetic, corrupt, un-American — we are now uprooting mediocrity, but the onlookers are not convinced that mediocrity hasn’t set in into the very fabric of the ordinary fighter in the unit.
This is doubt in the transformation of Trump’s administration — not doubt in Donald Trump and his greatness, but in the potential of America:
Courtesy: Zerohedge.com/TheMarketEar, Barclays
The retail investor is confused.
The question to ask is — do you believe in the potential of putting America back on track? I do.
We are entering a mining boom and I am more bullish on silver today than at any point, since silver hit $9/ounce in the aftermath of the 2008 meltdown! Silver is the MOTHER LODE, in my view!
Courtesy: WhiteHouse.Gov
Here’s an analysis of the current Commitment of Traders (COT) report for silver, as of March 18, 2025, compared to historical reports from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
I’ll compare it to key historical data points over the past decade to gauge trends, sentiment, and positioning shifts.
Current COT Report: Silver (March 18, 2025)
– Open Interest: 170,566 contracts
– Non-Commercial (Speculators): Long: 87,601 (51.4%), Short: 25,303 (14.8%), Net Long: 62,298.
– Commercial (Hedgers): Long: 31,479 (18.5%), Short: 113,134 (66.3%), Net Short: -81,655.
– Non-Reportable (Small Traders): Long: 32,438 (19.0%), Short: 13,081 (7.7%), Net Long: 19,357.
Key Trends & Sentiment
- Speculators: The current 62,298 net long is robust—below 2016’s 78,140 peak, but double 2014/2020 lows.
Historically, such levels precede price jumps (2016: $15 to $20; 2020: $12 to $28).
- Commercials: Net short -81,655 is hefty but not a record (2016: -99,252). They’ve never been net long since 1986, and this deep shorting often signals tops—yet prices rose post-2016 despite similar positions. Today’s $33.29 vs. $15.50, implies they’re hedging higher costs, not capping price.
- Small Traders: Net long 19,357 is middling—below 2020/2022 highs (32k–24k).
Silver’s COT now echoes 2016’s bullish setup – speculators piling in, commercials digging in short, but with higher open interest and price ($33 vs. $15).
Historically, spec net longs above 60,000 indicate rallies (2016, 2020), though commercial shorts temper runaway gains.
Compared to past cycles, this isn’t a top yet. This is a 40-year chart of the housing affordability index!
The NAR’s Housing Affordability Index (HAI) is built on four essential elements:
- Median Household Income: This reflects the earnings of an average family, drawn from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS) and updated yearly to represent typical income levels.
- Median Price of Existing Homes: The middle value of homes sold, based on NAR’s monthly sales figures, focusing solely on existing properties for uniformity.
- Mortgage Rate: The prevailing interest rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage, sourced from Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS), capturing current borrowing costs.
- Required Income Level: The annual income necessary to purchase the median home, calculated so the mortgage payment stays within 25% of monthly income, a standard affordability guideline.
Courtesy: Zerohedge.com/TheMarketEar, Yardeni
The affordability index being so low, back in 1985 levels, while prices are at all-time highs, while the stock market is at an all-time high, and interest rates are so high, is UNIQUE!
Stocks are near record highs, housing prices are near record highs, cryptocurrencies near record highs, gold at an all-time high, but SILVER, the one that is STILL so far below its record high, all while the dollar index is at a record high as well, makes me INCREDIBLY excited about silver!
Silver could be on the verge of blastoff! Silver is in such an incredible situation because the S&P 500 failed to breach above the 200-Day Moving Average after dropping below it.
After 2001, the markets suffered from an 8-year long sideways market, while commodities SOARED.
This is my next signal that silver is about to soar even higher!
But the clear silver breakout signals above AREN’T EVEN my best one, because I will now show you… why more than any other catalyst, the following chart predicts that we are on the verge of greatness.
The only TWO previous times that we reached this point were in 1968 and in 2000, both resulting in 25x and 12x returns.
Americans have a disproportionate amount of their life savings in U.S. equities! This only happened in 1968 and 2000, both were the BEST TIMES ever to own silver stocks!
Courtesy: Zerohedge.com/TheMarketEar, BofA
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It’s decision time.
1968, 2000 and now 2025 – the only three times that U.S. household wealth was concentrated in equities to this degree and I am positioning.
I am positioning in silver in a manner that rivals NOTHING I’ve ever done before.
The signs are there… the signals are here.
First of all, I have to say… no one cares about silver. I don’t see a single major financial outlet that is reporting that silver has TRIPLED since March 2020.
No one is reporting that the precious metal is nearing 13-year highs!
Gold is the best-performing major asset class of 2025!
2025 is starting in a way that is similar to major bull markets in U.S. stocks:
Courtesy: Zeroehedge.com
Lastly, I want to show you why gold’s bull market is not coming to an end.
This beautiful chart shows we are only HALFWAY through it!
If that’s true, gold might reach $4,500-$6,000, and silver could reach $65-$100!
Courtesy: Zerohedge.com
The U.S. is entering a real golden age, not fueled by the market cap of seven companies, but by the excellence of its entire economic machine, featuring thousands of businesses, millions of people and tens of millions of new ideas.
While stocks have been in a bloodbath, bonds are on a tear.
But what I really care about, the only movement that I am truly glued to, are the U.S. dollar, because that will let us achieve the best probabilities for the silver BLAST-OFF!
The dollar is doing poorly. I tracked the performance of gold in times like these and what comes next is very interesting… VERY!
First of all, Goldman Sachs just raised their gold price target:
Courtesy: Zerohedge.com/TheMarketEar, Goldman Sachs
Gold’s best quarter in 39 years is a real wake-up call to us all. Gold’s best days and finest quarters were in the 1970’s, some 50 years ago.
After huge quarters, many things can happen, including following quarters of 15.1%, 28.9% and 42.2% moves.
If this occurs, the next few months will be legendary.
Courtesy: Zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
Best Regards,
Lior Gantz
President, WealthResearchGroup.com
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