The Market Doesn’t Reflect Reality
Yesterday was my final day in Paris. As you’re reading this, I’ve taken our traveling circus (my wife, our 6-year-old, our twin 16-month-old boys, my mother, and myself) two hours southeast to the Burgundy region.
After accidently bumping into Elon Musk and Peter Thiel in Paris, watching the Eiffel Tower get lit up at 11 PM, and learning all about the bloody history of France and how the people of this region have been showing the way to the rest of us in many different aspects for centuries now, I’m out of the bustling city and have entered the quiet and relaxed countryside.
Paris is massive. It’s the most populous city in France and the 4th most populated in the European Union. With over two million people in the city itself, it is one of the most densely populated areas in the world.
For me, Paris is a clear example of how the rich can alienate the rest of the population by hoarding wealth instead of increasing it, thus creating great frustration and depression that bubbles to the surface and ends with a revolution.
Late in the 19th century, Paris hosted the 1889 Universal Expedition, which gave rise to the idea of one Gustave Eiffel. He suggested erecting a building for 20 years, yet it still stands today as one of the city’s greatest landmarks and attractions.
As part of our final day, I booked a guided gourmet tour of the Saint-Germain-des-Prés, a vibrant neighborhood with many bakeries and pâtisseries. The sweets and savory choices are abundant.
The guide showed us what a real French baguette is made of and how it should be prepared. She was adamant that a baguette should cost no more than 1.5 euros.
As she was talking about what prices should really be like, I remembered how much designer shoes and bags are sold for just a few blocks away.
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A handbag that can hold a few simple items is easily marked at 7,000 euros if it is made by Christian Dior. A watch basically just showing the time like any phone can is sold for over 100,000 euros if Richard Mille is the maker.
Luxury goods are in a mad bubble, and the NASDAQ is no different!
Courtesy: Zerohedge.com
I have a bad feeling in my gut because unlike companies whose CEOs and management teams have done a lot to adapt to and evolve in the new high interest rate environment, many commercial real estate projects and leveraged development projects HAVE NOT.
Their strategy has been to pray for better conditions or raise rents to offset higher mortgage payments, but I don’t see sellers truly capitulating and making their peace with the “higher for longer” policies of the Federal Reserve.
Until we see investors taking losses and making painful decisions, I can’t truly call this bubble a sustained bull market.
The NASDAQ has made its best start EVER in 2023!
I have taken the last few days to review my entire portfolio. I sold at least 50% of any position in which I am not fully on board with the price I paid. I also took profits in any company I deem as susceptible to a big correction.
We are not in a bubble yet, but we are darn close, and I am not taking chances.
Best Regards,
Lior Gantz
President, WealthResearchGroup.com
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