Tired of Covid
The global population is growing increasingly tired of sacrificing so much of their freedom, in exchange for protection from a disease that most now realize is not dangerous whatsoever to them.
If two years ago, the assumption was that we must all brace for impact and do our fair share to keep the healthcare system from completely collapsing, today we know enough and have innovated and adjusted to these big tasks. But we have reached the limits of our willingness to give up precious years of our lives for a political miscalculation of the severity of a crisis.
The public sentiment is drastically changing, and we believe that each country will choose to address the situation according to their national culture of balancing fear and freedom, after this wave of Omicron has passed.
Bottom line, we think the pandemic will be turning into an endemic, effective March 2022, and solutions to it will vary across the globe.
Some countries will live with the situation and others will create camps and vaccine passports and restrictions. Even within the United States, one will encounter unbelievable differences in the approach to handling the virus, depending on the culture of any given region.
While the President of the United States and his administration are attempting to scare people into getting the vaccine and the booster shots, the markets place very little weight on the disease itself, but are deathly afraid of politicization of the response, in order to claim victory over the Omicron.
After the FED explained its economic outlook for 2022, which included 4% GDP growth (a very high figure), the threat of factories shutting down again and of people staying home, instead of consuming and creating demand for services is going to serve as a volatile headwind.
The market wants to know Biden won’t freak out, and calling it a “Winter of Death” is the opposite of that.
WATCH LISTS UPDATE + GOLD
- Cerner (CERN): In our 2nd Watch List, dated June 11th 2020, we highlighted this healthcare technology company. At the time, shares traded around $65/share and on Friday, it was rumored that Oracle plans to acquire it for $30bn, so the stock surged by 15%.
All told, the stock is up 38% (including dividends) since June 2020 and trades at an all-time high, so I’ll be monitoring the opening bell tomorrow; if it jumps by another 10%, I’ll sell the whole position and if it’s flat, I’ll sell half and wait with the 2nd half.
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Cash levels are so high right now that wherever funds flow next could be a face-ripping rallying sector.
With that said, a second update is this:
- S&P Global Intelligence (SPGI): In our 3rd Watch List, dated August 19th 2021, we highlighted the company that owns many of the world’s most important financial real estate.
Here’s what we wrote (look at the part circled in green):
As you can see, though we highlighted it in August 2020, it wasn’t until January 2021 that shares pulled back to this proposed range.
Once they did, the stock bottomed, so our support line was perfect, in hindsight. I don’t plan to sell my position, as I’m up 53%, but I am raising my personal limit order, and if SPGI pulls back to $420/share, I’ll double my holding size.
The company’s shares also trade at an all-time high, as do Ciena’s (CIEN) and Waste Management’s (WM) from this same Watch List, up 88% and 60%, respectively.
- Gold and Silver 2022 outlook: After Powell’s statement, both silver and gold rallied back up, especially silver, which is very encouraging.
Gold and silver will have a phenomenal 2022, if GDP growth meets expectations (strong growth), while the FED raises rates two or three times into an environment of sticky inflation. However, if growth slows or inflation spikes due to Omicron political theatrics, this could dampen Q1 performance.
Courtesy: Zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
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