This was one FOR THE AGES; the first Covid-era debate is behind us. Today, I want to REVEAL MY CONCLUSIONS from it, since it was widely-viewed and closely-followed.
The NASDAQ 100 has GONE DOWN from 12,420 to 10,833 points from September 2nd to September 23rd, a -12.8% CORRECTION! During that same period, the S&P 500 has HEADED SOUTH by -10% from 3,580 points to 3,226. This is AWFULLY SIMILAR to the period of September 2018.
September has been HARD to STOMACH; the NASDAQ 100, S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have all been THROUGH THE WRINGER. A proper correction is in place, just like we’ve been WARNING ABOUT since the end of August.
What NO ONE expects is a deep recession; there are a number of CONFLICTING THEORIES as to what the recovery will look like, but nothing about entering a recession. The consensus is that the pandemic is highly-contagious, but not lethal; “with a vaccine coming and FEAR LEVELS subsiding, a recovery has begun,” is the general idea.
I’m currently in Tel Aviv, where the government has just approved a SECOND LOCKDOWN, more flexible than the one in March/April but still EXTREMELY PAINFUL for businesses (which are forced to shut down again), families (which are now tasked with parenting their children 24/7), the NATIONAL DEBT, which is reaching new highs not seen in decades, and for morale and spirit of individuals, who have seen the COVID-19 virus impact A TINY NUMBER of people compared with the comprehensive response the government is imposing — this is the REAL ISSUE here — the tradeoff between not overwhleiming hospitals (which are short of staff and on beds) and halting the lives of the millions, who will not impact statistics, since they’re not at risk.