Biden, Trump and De-Globalization
My late grandmother was a Polish Jew, whose family migrated to Frankfurt and settled there. When she was born in 1927, Germany was in the midst of recovering from the Weimar Republic hyperinflation, but by 1933, as the Great Depression in the U.S. plummeted the German economy into a tailspin, Hitler’s party won the elections.
Aged six, my grandmother walked home from school, and another child of similar age yelled at her to go back to Palestine, but a neighbor, who was on her porch watching this happening, yelled to the German that she should go to Palestine, if she so desired.
The point of the story was that my grandmother’s family identified themselves as part of German society, well before feeling the connection to the British Mandate over the land that later became Israel in 1948.
By 1937, as Nazi Germany became openly hostile towards the Jewish ethnicity, my great-grandfather (my grandmother’s dad) was slapped from the back for not saluting the officer in the street, and to him, it was a wake-up call like no other.
A couple of days later, the family had packed up everything they could and immigrated to Palestine, then under British rule.
When my grandmother told me this story, I was just a young boy, but as I thought about it more and more and studied the indifference and the brushing-off of these warnings by the German Jews, I now know that my great-grandfather was among the 25% of Jews who saw what could come next and left.
This means that despite all of the signs, which included changes in the laws to demote them to non-citizens, acts of violence, being banned from attending functions, working in certain occupations, and owning businesses, as well as outlawing marriages, most stayed and thought this was a passing phase.
In hindsight, the Nazi officer slapping the backside of the neck was a blessing in disguise. It prompted action, saved their lives and started a chain reaction that is still evolving – now you’re a part of it, by reading this paragraph.
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When Trump gave the most de-globalized U.N. speech in decades (2018), it was a big deal and paved the way to Americans exiting the Middle East, which continues to this day.
When Jerome Powell said we needed to retire the word “transitory,” it marked the top for the NASDAQ and started a bear market in equities, which has now lasted 14 months and caused the loss of $37tn in wealth!!!
As we enter 2023, Iran is signaling that it too is reaching the point of no return, with its uranium now enriched by 60%, still below the 90% needed for a weapon, but well above the 20% in 2015.
If Iran obtains nuclear weapons and joins the ranks of the other nations that have such an arsenal, it completely tilts the center of gravity in the Middle East.
In the coming months, the Biden administration will make it a top priority to prevent that from happening, but if it fails, war in the region is assured.
As I have said in many previous publications, de-globalization, which is the process by which America is staying out of conflicts that don’t directly involve it, is giving rise to new powers that are looking to assert their dominance over others.
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