We Have a Rare Moment on our Hands
Wall Street is needlessly worried about stagflation and I’m very surprised about just how wrong they can be at times.
When you’re new at something, you can be forgiven for making big mistakes like these, but in this situation, it’s inexcusable.
A friend of mine told me that one evening, he sat down for dinner with some clients and one of them ordered a dish that had a French ring to it. He didn’t want to appear clueless, so he pretended to be in the know and ate some, along with the rest of the table.
A few minutes later, he went to the restroom and used his time there to google what the hell he was eating.
It always cracks me up, when he tells me that the second he realized it was goose liver, he started rinsing out his mouth. I wear a smile, from cheek from cheek, just writing these words and sharing them with you.
I happen to love goose liver, but I can imagine the horror of eating something that had nothing to do with what I thought I did; it gives the body a weird sensation.
He had an excuse for being ignorant of it, but Wall Street doesn’t have that luxury since they should know better – so we’ll make sure to capitalize fully on this situation.
The economy isn’t in stagflation mode whatsoever.
The American economy is in an inflationary boom status:
- The labor market is tight and the FED is making a huge mistake, if it thinks otherwise.
We’re not going back to Trump-era unemployment numbers anytime soon, so there’s no reason to assume any slack in the jobs market.
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It is far tighter than it appears, because the government does a poor job of actually counting employment.
Some 600,000 new businesses have been created, since the pandemic began.
This is a 100% increase over the past 18 months!
These small enterprises are not properly calculated in government figures, and this entrepreneurial boom isn’t accounted for in the right way. Because the stock market and the housing sector are so hot, many are not going to return to the workforce and have asked their significant other to retire early and enjoy life.
Think also about the fact that while unemployment benefits have ceased, Biden replaced the free lunch with child tax credits, so aid is still very much going on.
- Household incomes are back to pre-pandemic levels.
In a stagflation, there is little to no growth. Right now, Americans have robust income streams and they’re even holding back on purchases, because they see the madness in rising prices, but patience is wearing thin.
They’ll soon resume purchasing, and we can see that money velocity is extremely low!
- Wages are up, productivity is up, credit card transactions are up – this is an inflationary boom!
The vaccine mandates aren’t scaring employees; they’re either revolting, unionizing or plain quitting their jobs and finding better ones.
Enjoy the boom, because as you know, for every boom there is a BUST!
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