Stock Market Wealth

URGENT on Gold… as in URGENT

by | Stock Market Wealth

It Took 22 Years to Get to This Point

We all know what’s at stake here.

If gold clinches an all-time high, in dollar terms, it will be the beginning of an incredible multiyear move.
In most major currencies around the world, gold is already trading at an all-time high, as we speak.

Courtesy: Incrementum AG monthly Compass

Gold has been the right asset with which to save your funds in this millennium that began 23 years ago.

Listening to the 6-hour Berkshire Hathaway meeting, I was shocked that no shareholder asked Warren and Charlie if they had ever calculated how much money the company has lost by keeping their cash in dollars, rather than in gold.

If they had, they’d learn that Berkshire could have and should have been a trillion-dollar conglomerate by now, but their stubbornness has held them back.

But now, gold seems to be facing some challenges and I want to address them.

Gold is really close to hitting a new high in nominal dollar terms, because of the following:

  • Debt Ceiling exposes the U.S. to credit downgrades and loss of prestige.
  • De-globalization processes are only intensifying, making the dollar less relevant in a world where every country is taking a national approach to matters, instead of looking for America to solve them.
  • Regional banking crisis serves as a bedrock to cutting interest rates down prematurely.
  • Central banks are buying gold at record quantities, but retail participation in the gold rally has been muted.


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    The one remaining problem is that the CME FedWatch tool, which I keep open on my browser at all times, is showing the futures predicting another rate hike, a final one for now.

    This wasn’t priced in before, but it is now.

    What that tells me is that gold will come under pressure until the June meeting at the very least, but it could be more like until September.

    If the market conditions change before then, so be it, but wishful thinking is not a good plan and reality tells me that, for the time being, gold will consolidate.

    When we talk about a bull market and the possibility of generating outsized, significant and meaningful potential returns in commodities, the idea is to own the equities, not the underlying metal.

    This following chart shows you that for the past eight years, the miners have traded in a range against gold and for very low valuations:

    Courtesy: Incrementum AG monthly Compass

    The ratio is well below the 25-year median and, effectively, trades near the 2015 lows, which occurred when gold’s price was HALF of today’s level.

    In other words, either CEOs of mining companies are very poor executives, or the opportunity is disgustingly massive.

    In today’s macro-economic environment, raising money for huge projects is extremely tough.

    The risk tolerance is very low and the lending interest rates are expensive. When the FED lowers rates, we believe that there will be a rush to fund new mining projects, because at today’s prices of $2,000, these are cash cows (global mining costs are around $1,200/ounce).

    When the FED cuts interest rates, we envision an inflationary recovery and that is great news, but we may have to sit and wait until September.

    22 years ago, I began investing, right when gold began a massive bull market, but I was 16 years old and didn’t participate.

    If this turns out to be a bull market, it will be my first and I am ready.

    Best Regards,

    Lior Gantz

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